Market Commentary Archive

2nd Qtr 2017 Market Insights

- 2017 2nd Quarter

U.S. Economy – Good The key factors we track, unemployment, housing, and inflation, are still healthy.  There has been little change to inflation, which stays solidly below 2%, but remains in a safe zone. 


1st Quarter 2017 Market Commentary

- 2017 1st Quarter

U.S. Economy – Good The key factors we track, unemployment, housing, and inflation, are all favorable. Unemployment is now in the 4.7% range, while wage inflation has held its slight upward trend.


4th Q Market Insights

- 2016 4th Quarter

There were two events in the Fourth Quarter that influenced U.S. and foreign financial markets: Donald Trump won the presidential election which led to positive growth on Wall Street & the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate of 0.25% signified the Fed's confidence in the improving U.S. economy.


Latest Market Insights

- 2016 3rd Quarter

By all accounts the first three quarters of 2016 have been very good from a performance standpoint, notwithstanding some periods of intense volatility. The S&P has delivered a return of approximately 7.8%, with the Russell 2000 at 11.4%. MSCI EM have delivered a remarkable 16.4% year to date.


Latest Market Insights

- 2016 2nd Quarter

This quarter has been full of ups and downs. Commodities and emerging markets quietly led the way in performance, after several years near or at the bottom, while REITS stayed on top for the 3rd year. Big talk has been Brexit.


Making Sense of Brexit…

- 2016 2nd Quarter

Are we in the crosshairs of a terrible financial catastrophe or will cooler heads prevail?


Market Review & Outlook

- 2016 1st Quarter

There is so much happening in the world this quarter that it is difficult to pinpoint a primary driver. Despite the noise of the markets this quarter, we are still in the midst of an expansion.


Market Insights

- 2015 4th Quarter

US Market’s underlying fundamentals remain healthy. Tactical exposure to growth areas and careful bond allocation to diversified and well-managed portfolios is key.


Market Commentary

- 2015 3rd Quarter

US Market’s overall valuation has changed to undervalued, relative to historical ranges. Exposure to weakening emerging markets, which are commodity sensitive should be limited.


Market Commentary

- 2015 2nd Quarter

U.S. Economic data continue to be strong. Job creation continues to grow, as do housing starts.


The Market: Chin Music

- 2015 1st Quarter

The first quarter of 2015 is, thus far, looking a lot like ‘14. Our 2015 market is waiting with great anticipation to see what the Federal Reserve Board has in store.


“We’ve Come So Far…and the Future Looks Bright”

- 2014 4th Quarter

Before we take a look towards the future, let's reflect on where we have been.


Contrary to Popular Belief…The Sky is Not Falling

- 2014 3rd Quarter

What just happened? Does a modest Market correction have us running for the hills? What is really going on?


The King is back, so is the Market

- 2014 2nd Quarter

Encouragingly the second quarter has done an about face with May and June proving to be two of the best months of the year, with broad participation across all global equity markets. So what is going on?


In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Lion

- 2014 1st Quarter

2014 began with a whimper, and a tremendous sell-off that saw the market drop by slightly more than 7%, but gave way to a "lioness" recovery that offset most previous losses.


Let the Good Times Roll

- 2013 4th Quarter

As 2014 begins we all wonder: can we possibly repeat 2013? The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 29.7% last year and the S&P 500 was up 32.3%.


Washington Worries

- 2013 3rd Quarter

It is October 1, 2013, and in addition to me being on the ball and writing this a day after the end of the quarter, it is also what I expect to be one of the last calm days before what should be a very treacherous month ahead.


Raise the Roof: March Madness is Back!

- 2013 1st Quarter

The fourth quarter 2012 was exciting: politically and economically. The re-election of Obama coincided with a strong stock market sell-off as the Market considered the political ramifications of a split Congress. The Market inched its way back up through December, but then was held back by fear of the fiscal cliff on New Year’s Day.


It Was the End of the World as We Know It, and I Feel Fine

- 2012 4th Quarter

2012 is in the history books and what a year it was. From the Elections to the Olympics to the devastating natural disasters and to the Mayan “end of the world”. It was a tumultuous, exciting, and sometimes tearful year. But we made it through and are now looking ahead to 2013.


QE3

- 2012 3rd Quarter

As we head into the last quarter of 2012, we are on the summit, or apex, of the Market year. In the 3rd quarter the market rallied and was up 6.35%, and 16.4% for the year. In addition, the S&P 500 Index for the 1-year period ending 9/30 is up 27%. The Markets are not only at 52 week high, they are at a 4-year high.


The Storm after the Calm

- 2012 2nd Quarter

We have all heard the expression that if something appears too good to be true then it normally is. After two consecutive quarters of double-digit returns, reality has set in.


Surprise Surprise Surprise

- 2012 1st Quarter

After an extremely volatile 2011, the 1st quarter of 2012 brought us what can best be described as “Surprise, Surprise Surprise”. If this sounds familiar, it is because this was once the catchphrase of noted philosopher Gomer Pyle (I know some of you reading this have no idea who I am referring to.)


Much Ado About Nothing

- 2011 4th Quarter

As the calendar turned to 2011, most analysts within the investment circle believed that both the market and economy had finally turned the corner from “The Great Recession” of 2008, and while most expectations for the year were not necessarily calling for great market returns, most of the so-called experts were calling for a solid market performance year.


Shock Wave

- 2011 3rd Quarter

A fond memory I have growing up in Oklahoma City is driving to Dallas, Texas to go to an amusement park called Six Flags. When I was around twelve years old, they introduced a new roller coaster called the “Shock Wave”.


Rainy Days

- 2011 2nd Quarter

Each quarter when we write our Market Commentary, we do so by comparing the Market to recent events, popular songs, award-winning movies, etc. In analyzing the 2nd Quarter, it was quite clear that the theme had to be based on the weather.


Teflon Market

- 2011 1st Quarter

Near the end of the First Quarter, Japan was devastated by a Tsunami, a nuclear threat, and a series of earthquakes. Based on the number of phone calls we received from plan participants, it is evident that people are nervous about how this will affect the economy and the Market.


Indian Summer

- 2010 3rd Quarter

The expression "Indian Summer" is used to describe an unseasonably warm fall day. This phrase came to mind as we reflected on the third quarter.


Groundhog Day

- 2010 2nd Quarter

If you have recently awoken in a cold sweat with an eerie feeling that you have been here before, you are not alone. Does it feel like "Groundhog Day'' to you? Those of you old enough might remember the classic 1993 movie starring Bill Murray, where his character kept waking up to the same day over and over again. Did the 2nd Quarter, 2010 stock market performance make you think that you kept waking up in 2008?


Market Climbs the Wall of Worries

- 2010 1st Quarter

Earlier this week while I was leading an education meeting, I asked the group a simple true/false question. The question was “by a show of hands who thinks the market was good in 2009?” I was shocked that only one hand went up.


On the Mend

- 2009 4th Quarter

Happy New Year and Welcome to the New Decade! We have just concluded, from a historical standpoint, the worst investment decade in our nation’s history.


Spring Forward, Fall Back

- 2009 3rd Quarter

What a difference a year can make. I was reviewing the third quarter Market Commentary of 2008 written October 14, 2008. As I reflect on this current time period, it is amazing to see how far the Market went down, how much it has recovered – and how much more we have to go.


Rally Time

- 2009 2nd Quarter

The world didn’t come to an end after all. Six months ago it seemed the very foundation of modern financial markets were crumbling. Everything you knew about investing appeared to be wrong.


Boomerang

- 2009 1st Quarter

In reflecting on the wild ride we have been on in the market, the analogy that has come to mind is the flight of the Boomerang. "Boomerang" is defined in Wikipedia as a ‘curved piece of wood that travels in an elliptical path and returns to its point of origin’.


Wild Wild West

- 2008 4th Quarter

As we turned the calendar from 2008 to 2009, I think we would all agree that we could not get the New Year started fast enough after experiencing what was the most devastating year in the Market. In this Market Commentary, I will recap the "Wild Wild West" year that we had and discuss what lies ahead for 2009.


Historic Times

- 2008 3rd Quarter

It is Tuesday, October 14th, and as I sit down to write this commentary, I feel like I have just witnessed a horrific train wreck. That train wreck is the Stock Market.


Crude Reality

- 2008 2nd Quarter

As I sit to write the Market Commentary for the 2nd quarter of 2008, I cannot help but shake my head in sheer amazement as to what has transpired over the past 90 days (actually for the 2nd quarter of 2008). In many ways, the quarter was like the old movie "The Good, (April) The Bad, (May) and the Ugly (June)".


Down but Not Out

- 2008 1st Quarter

In our Commentary for 4th Quarter of 2007, I compared the market to a flight I had recently taken and titled it “Turbulence”. As we conclude the 1st quarter of 2008, it is apparent that we are continuing the bumpy ride that we started in the final quarter of last year.


Turbulence

- 2007 4th Quarter

Each quarter at Pension Advisors, I write a commentary about what happened in the market for the latest quarter as well as the past year. I also discuss what I expect to see affecting the market in the months ahead. While I will go through the events of the 4th Quarter of 2007, I will focus more on what is going on now and what we see ahead.


Shake, Rattle & Roll

- 2007 3rd Quarter

I have been in this business for over 16 years now and have never experienced anything like the 3rd quarter of 2007. I recently tried to describe the market activity to a participant and compared it to Joe Turner’s 1950's hit song. First we were all Shaken, then we were all Rattled by the market, then the Fed adjusted rates and the market Rolled.


Fireworks

- 2007 2nd Quarter

On Independence Day, I enjoyed watching a wonderful fireworks show. As I was thinking about it, I could not help but think that from a market perspective, we saw some real "Fireworks" during the 2nd Quarter of this year.


March Madness

- 2007 1st Quarter

One of my favorite times of the year is from mid-March through early April. This period hosts the NCAA Tournament, Opening Day for Baseball, and The Masters golf tournament. CBS sportscaster, Brent Musberger, popularized the term “March Madness” back in 1982 to describe the frenzy associated with the NCAA Tournament.


The Goldilocks Effect

- 2006 4th Quarter

As we said goodbye to 2006 and ushered in 2007, I contemplated what made 2006 such a good year in the market. There are a variety of factors that contributed to the S&P being up 15.8%, but I believe the single biggest factor was the Federal Reserve halting interest rate changes.


Boomer Sooner

- 2006 3rd Quarter

Normally, I spend my Saturday afternoons in the fall cheering for my favorite college football team, the Oklahoma Sooners. Having grown up in Oklahoma, one of the first things that every child learns is the school fight song called, "Boomer Sooner”.


Derailed

- 2006 2nd Quarter

In our 1st Quarter 2006 Market Commentary, I expressed some concern over what I felt could happen in the market, and unfortunately many of those concerns came to fruition during the 2nd quarter of this year.


Market on the Brink

- 2006 1st Quarter

As we have just ended the 1st Quarter for 2006, from an investment standpoint, things appear very good. We often hear in a movie or read in a novel, “things are often not as they appear”. As we head into the summer months, the market is facing a crossroad that it has not experienced in some time.



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Latest Updates & Information

2nd Qtr 2017 Market Insights

U.S. Economy – Good The key factors we track, unemployment, housing, and inflation, are still healthy.  There has been little change to inflation, which stays solidly below 2%, but remains in a safe zone. 

Read full story here

Second Q Market Insights

Check out the Second Quarter Market Insights led by Beth Spurry.

Watch video here

1st Quarter 2017 Market Commentary

U.S. Economy – Good The key factors we track, unemployment, housing, and inflation, are all favorable. Unemployment is now in the 4.7% range, while wage inflation has held its slight upward trend.

Read full story here

4th Q Market Insights

There were two events in the Fourth Quarter that influenced U.S. and foreign financial markets: Donald Trump won the presidential election which led to positive growth on Wall Street & the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate of 0.25% signified the Fed's confidence in the improving U.S. economy.

Read full story here